1. It gives me great pleasure to be here today as we consider a pressing challenge: how to navigate the rising tides of uncertainty that define our age.

2. Before I begin, I want to offer my heartfelt thanks to two individuals whose leadership has shaped both the purpose and the spirit of this international gathering. To President Halimah Yacob, whose vision brought the International Conference on Cohesive Societies into being. This conference is her brainchild, and it is a privilege for us all to continue the endeavour she set in motion – with gratitude for the foresight that continues to guide us. And to President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, for his insightful address yesterday. I was touched by his gracious words about my own work, and today I hope to reinforce and build on the important themes he so clearly articulated – as we begin to chart the complexities of uncertainty.

3. This uncertainty is not merely a temporary squall. Uncertainty is the condition under which we now sail – and this storm is likely to be with us for some time to come.

4. The 2022 United Nations Human Development Report describes our current predicament as an "uncertainty complex": a confluence of destabilising global pressures, sweeping social transformations, and deepening political polarization.¹  We are being tested not by a single crisis, but by an overwhelming, sometimes frightening, interplay of conditions – whipping up into a perfect storm.

5. New chapters in the narrative of global fragmentation are added by the week, day – sometimes, it seems, by the hour. The Covid-19 pandemic lent us a ‘new norm’ of closed borders and social distancing, and a ‘me-first’ mindset among countries, communities and individuals. We have seen war return to Europe and West Asia. Food and energy systems are fragile, vulnerable to both geopolitics and climate change. Climate extremes have intensified, with record heat, flooding, wildfires, and loss of biodiversity.²  And trust in governments, media, experts, politicians and, perhaps most sadly, each other, has eroded alarmingly.³  Meanwhile, technologies we barely understood five short years ago, at the start of that same pandemic, are reshaping how we live, work, relate, play and govern. Perhaps most extraordinarily, all of this innovation in digital connectivity is unfolding against a backdrop of growing alienation, polarisation, and loneliness.

6. So, let me introduce three complex interlocking factors that have fuelled uncertainty and challenge social cohesion. First, the digital transformation of our society. Second, the dynamics of human migration. And third, the uneven economic impacts of globalization.

I. The Paradox of Digital Societies

7. We live in the most connected era in human history. Over five billion people now have access to the internet. Digital platforms shape public discourse and private thought. The impact on our economies, our politics, and even on our minds, is transformative.

8. The pandemic was a watershed moment in our living history, not least in how it accelerated our virtual connectedness. It brought wide-ranging digital communities into our very living rooms. We conducted schooling, office work, legal trials, and endless group quizzes on screens. The potential for simpler, more streamlined communication exploded into public consciousness. Our expanding virtual worlds promised increased inclusion and accessibility, and a tangible sense of a shared global experience, like never before. And it was a very human experience. Societal cohesion was reshaped by a dynamic online global community, one held together by innovations both marvellous and challenging.

9. Digitalization has brought knowledge to our fingertips, and given rise to new forms of solidarity and community. Online, people are exploring identity in freer, more fluid ways. Digital society also has fantastic scope to amplify the voice of marginalized communities. Take, for instance, movements such as Black Lives Matter or Me-Too, which have brought systemic issues of abuse and inequality to the forefront of international discussion, and rallied people across race, gender and borders. People can connect with others all over the planet, forming communities not limited by geography or ethnicity, but united by shared values and causes.

We are fostering a kind of global empathy, a sense of collective responsibility. We can see this in globally-coordinated environmental protection campaigns and anti-war protests. The cohesive potential of this digital society is truly exciting.

10. Yet, we are also entering a digital disruption age. The multiple benefits from this relentless digitalization of our lives unfortunately come at considerable cost. Our digital spaces, which should be so good at opening doors and minds, are instead responsible for closing them. The very technologies that promise inclusion can entrench exclusion. Our information ecosystems have become battlegrounds. Algorithms have the unfortunate habit of trapping us in digital echo chambers – feeding prejudice and starving nuance. This results in fragmentation, a kind of online tribalism. Information, while accessible, is becoming decentralized.

11. Online hate rises, as does the spread of conspiracy theories, the propagation of extremist ideologies, and even violence. And with truth itself now up for grabs, with the rise of fake news, trust in institutions and in each other breaks down. The very real dangers of this were realized last summer in the UK, for example, in the race riots that followed the tragic murders in Southport. The fabric of our social cohesion is being unravelled in the digital realm.

And so it is there also that we must focus our efforts to weave it back together.

II. International Migration

12. Migration is one of the oldest human responses to uncertainty. People move in search of safety, opportunity and dignity. They always have. But never in such numbers. According to the United Nations, as of last year, the global number of international migrants had almost doubled compared with 1990 – from 154 million to 304 million.⁴  It could hit 1 billion by 2050. Climate change, conflict, and economic and political instability are forcing masses of people to move, often faster than host countries can adapt. These forces are rewriting the geography of human life. They challenge not only our infrastructure, but our compassion.

13. Sudden demographic changes can trigger backlash, especially in communities who are unused to diversity. Extremist voices love to claim that multiculturalism has failed. Minority communities are made to feel unwelcome, even threatened, because of their religious customs or the colour of their skin, and this in turn fosters insularity in those communities: an unwillingness or inability to integrate; an ‘Us versus Them’ mentality on both sides. Isolated events are turned into sweeping generalizations, feeding fears about so-called ‘cultural dilution’. And because multiculturalism is so often tangled up with immigration, it ends up being framed as a threat to national identity. (And of course, no one ever quite agrees on what this ‘national identity’ actually is – but that is a discussion for another conference.)

14. The challenge is worsened if people feel institutions aren’t on their side. Minorities may feel unheard: majorities, overlooked. Populists often put across unsubstantiated stereotypes of minorities and migrants, presenting a false and negative picture of them as benefit-seekers and criminals. They are certainly not reporting their important positive contributions to the economy and the citizens’ well-being. We’ve all seen violence or crime being wrongly blamed on whole communities – the flames of prejudice being fanned by the press. And social media, with its penchant for misinformation, populist clamour and partisan biases, magnifies tensions and undermines social cohesion in nations with diverse or migrant populations.

15. And as global crises continue to escalate, so too will migration. So, what can we do as a global community? We must work together to find homes for those who have lost theirs, try to help alleviate the strain on countries that are overwhelmed. We must be welcoming to those we can accommodate. And we must strive to tackle the root causes that drive people from their homes in the first place. Meanwhile, at national level, governments must work harder to foster inclusion and integration, and to build harmony and understanding between diverse communities. It is a challenge that governments cannot afford to ignore. The consequences of a fractured society are severe.

16. In my home country of Malaysia, we are all too acutely aware of the way in which a lack of social cohesion lowers resilience, which is why we have racial harmony enshrined in the Rukun Negara – our declaration of National Principles. These words affirm that Malaysia “nurtures the ambitions of achieving a more perfect unity among the whole of her society…creating a just society where the prosperity of the country can be enjoyed together.”⁵  We have striven to celebrate the diversity of race, religion and culture that is so integral to our country. I firmly believe that this is one of our most precious assets, making us stronger, happier, and more prosperous as a nation. And of course, it makes us better at navigating uncertain times.

17. Later this morning, we will hear about this year’s Southeast Asian Social Cohesion Radar. The findings of the last survey conducted in 2022 show that the majority felt there was strong social cohesion in the region, with Singapore and Malaysia near the top of the list.⁶  We should take pride from this strength, evidenced even in the context of the pandemic, as tension and mistrust increased across the globe. Here in ASEAN, we have worked hard to sow the seeds of social cohesion, and that work is bearing some fruit.

18. It stands out that of all the factors that pointed to social cohesion in that 2022 Radar, the most significant were grouped under the heading: ‘social relations’. This describes participants’ ability to trust in other people; the strength of their social networks; their perception of the acceptance of diversity. Interpersonal trust was found to be more important for cohesion than trust in institutions, social rules, civic participation, and even, in the perception of fairness. Social cohesion is built from the ground up, on a foundation of humanity, and we must not take it for granted, nor stop striving for improvement. It starts small, with everyday interactions: the friendly word, the favour offered, the meal shared.

19. What, then, is the core foundation to foster this trust? I believe, a core foundation of social cohesion is to be a good neighbour. And it seems highly fitting that we reflect on that ideal for a moment. As a Malaysian, I am proud to call Singapore my neighbour, and I value the close bond that we share. Yet elsewhere in the world, at this very moment, countries are turning on their neighbours. The very worst of the international violence we have witnessed in recent years and even today has been perpetrated across borders. The backlash against multiculturalism in many countries means that some communities no longer feel welcome in their own hometowns. Far from being friends or allies, neighbours have become enemies.

III. Globalization Leaves Many Behind

20. Of course, behind every movement of people is a wider movement of capital, labour, and power. And so, we turn to the third key dynamic: globalization.

21. Since World War II, and especially since the 1980s onwards, trade liberalization – that is, removing barriers to trade – has been a crucial driver of development progress, and of bringing nations closer together. The push for open markets and international rules helped shift the world away from isolation and toward cooperation. And more recently, the rise of digital communication has supercharged global trade in services, connecting economies in ways we could not have imagined a few decades ago.

22. Globalization has brought immense benefits: higher incomes; reduced poverty; and narrowed gaps between countries. But these benefits have not been evenly distributed. Within nations it has been a different story – one of winners and losers. Some people – often those in struggling regions, in lower-skilled jobs – have lost out. While others, especially the highly educated and those working in thriving global cities such as here in Singapore, London, or New York, reap the rewards.

23. The rise of a small, multi-billionaire elite have led some to contend that today’s rich are living through a new Gilded Age, exceeding even the excesses of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with enormous riches and power heavily concentrated, especially in the top 1 per cent. Inequality has deepened further since the pandemic. Between 2020 and 2022, nearly two-thirds of all new wealth created globally went to the richest 1 per cent,⁷ while the bottom half of the world’s population, nearly 4 billion people, received just 2 per cent.⁸  Moreover, the extremes of inequality enabled the ultra-rich to fund political influence through lobbying, political financing, and their control of traditional and social media. Such vast inequalities impede social mobility, intensify economic insecurity, weaken social cohesion, and – eventually – can ignite social conflict.

24. So, while globalization has brought unprecedented prosperity, there has been – as observed by the famous Oxford economist, Sir Paul Collier – “a contrary process: a widening patchwork of places and communities that have fallen behind.”⁹  In some countries, the successful have even seemed to disregard left-behind people, places, and communities – all subject to political neglect. This is another factor in the rise of nationalist politics and populist politicians. Where vast inequality exists, populist movements and protectionist politics soon follow, with both local and international consequences.

25. Both international institutions and national governments have failed to adequately address deep, spatial inequalities within countries. They have often been slow to set up mechanisms to compensate losers, or put in place social protection systems to prevent or alleviate poverty. The upshot has been a push back on globalization at national policy level, driven by the growing antipathy to it by those left behind.

26. Malaysia has also experienced the uneven effects of globalization. Economic activity is heavily concentrated in the Klang Valley and a few other urban centres, and some of our states have been left behind. In my recent book, Globalization: Perak’s Rise, Relative Decline, and Regeneration,¹⁰  I trace the ebbs and flows of globalization over two centuries and assess their impact on the natural resource-rich state of Perak – one of the first that became multicultural, it must be noted.

IV. Navigating Together: Principles for a Cohesive Future

27. So, what does it mean to navigate uncertainty wisely? Amidst such upheaval, the pull of familiar certainties can feel deceptively comforting. There is a temptation to retreat. To retreat into narrower circles of identity, to hoard privileges, and to romanticize a past that, if we are honest and strip away nostalgia, never was. But I am confident that the answer to uncertainty is not withdrawal. Navigating these uncharted waters demands resilience and reinvention, but most importantly it will take collaboration and collective courage. I would like to offer four guiding principles:

28. There is an old saying, “smooth seas do not make skilful sailors.” We are certainly not living in tranquil times. And as I said at the beginning this uncertainty is not merely a temporary storm. But we are not adrift – and we are not without modern tools. Uncertainty, if met with clarity and courage, can become a valuable compass, and a crucible for renewal. It can inspire us to build societies that are not just more secure, but more just.

29. I have often wondered how best to approach leadership in times like these. And I have come to believe: good leadership is not the art of prediction. It is the practice of moral clarity in the face of ambiguity. It is the strength to hold space for difference without surrendering to division. It is, simply, to captain the ship – to steady the course in uncertain seas – and to ensure no one is left behind.

30. So let us not only navigate the unknown. Let us chart it. Let us map the conditions where uncertainty becomes not a threat, but a threshold. And may our work here ripple far beyond these walls – into communities, into institutions, and into the hands of generations who will steer the course next.

31. Uncertainty is here to stay, but allow me to close with a popular saying of enduring wisdom, ambitiously attributed to Aristotle (d. 322 BC), and, I am told, also to Dolly Parton: “You cannot change the wind, but you can adjust the sails.”